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In Malaysia the strategies include moves to stop the outflow of the talent and capital of its dynamic ethnic Chinese business community. For China, new strategies may include rebalancing towards domestic demand and levelling the playing field for the domestic private sector.
Both countries face the challenge of altering course to reflect their shifting comparative advantage in the face of resistance from vested interests that have grown rich and powerful from the status quo. In each case, strong domestic political and bureaucratic forces had to be overcome to unleash a new wave of dynamism before these countries could move ahead.
Their paths were different but they shared a willingness and ability to change course. Most Asian countries are unlikely to face immediate economic danger. Indeed, the Asian Development Bank is forecasting a very respectable 6—7 per cent growth in the near-term.
China and the middle-income trap: toward a Post Washington, Post Beijing Consensus
But middle-income traps build slowly over time. They strangle economies by absorbing resources that could otherwise be put to more effective use and by constraining policy space. For example, resources can get tied up in inefficient public enterprises, low value-added exporters, risky bank credits or speculative asset booms. Policy space can be reduced when public spending has to deal with pressing problems of social assistance, health care or environmental clean up that could have been avoided if more inclusive and sustainable growth strategies had been pursued from the start.
At its heart, the middle-income trap is a governance failure: an inability to take a long-term view of the best way forward for society as a whole.
"Law and Development of Middle-Income Countries: Avoiding the Middle-In"
Avoiding the trap can take careful preparation and implementation over a decade or more. Building top-tier universities, forming fair, transparent and accountable public institutions, building a culture of prudent risk-taking and a mindset of environmental sustainability are not processes that happen overnight. But unless middle-income Asian countries take the long view and change course they could fall, like many Latin American countries, into middle-income traps of their own making. Related Books.
Indonesia: avoiding the middle income trap
Since Indonesia has almost doubled its GDP, maintaining an average growth rate of 5. It weathered the global economic downturn with healthy public finances, demonstrating impressive macroeconomic resilience.
The Bank suggests that Indonesia will need to sustain or even exceed this growth rate if it is to deliver on its aspiration to become a high-income economy. Compared to other emerging countries, it has abundant labour due to its favourable demographics. Today, there are 45m in the middle class and more than 2m join their ranks every year, creating strong demand for goods and services.
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Indonesia has abundant natural resources and benefits from its position in the most economically dynamic region of the globe. The Bank set out key elements of a strategy for strong growth: boosting labour productivity and closing the skills gap; investing in infrastructure; and improving the functioning of product, labour, capital and land markets. The Bank also highlights the need to pay more attention to inequality to ensure that the benefits of growth are shared more widely.
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Better local governance to deliver public services health, waste management, sanitation, water , enhanced social protection, and improved management of natural risks are key elements. These reforms would require significant expansion and redirection of public finance.
Enhancing tax revenues and reducing energy subsidies would enable additional spending on infrastructure, health and social protection. Overarching all of these, the Bank identified the need to focus on implementation, which will require strengthened institutional capacity in public administration.
The report is available at the world bank website. We should continue to support Indonesia to open its markets to attract more inward investment.
Law and Development of Middle-Income Countries: Avoiding the Middle-Income Trap
We have seen Indonesia tend towards greater protectionism over recent years — the stronger Negative Investment List for example. Following its successful hosting of the Bali WTO Summit, it will be important to continue to encourage Indonesia to be aligned with the WTO on anti-protectionism and the G20 on transparency. With a change of government later this year, we wait to see how the new administration develops its economic approach.
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